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Stats Dive: SK Telecom T1 vs Samsung Galaxy

16 teams, 3 cities, and it all comes down to this - an all-Korean extravaganza between Samsung Galaxy and SK Telecom T1 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California, for the grand finale of the 2016 World Championships. Will Samsung Galaxy overcome the odds for their first world championship title, or are we in for yet another set of gorgeous SKT skins? Let’s dive into the numbers for a sneak peek into what they tell us about the future.

16 teams, 3 cities, and it all comes down to this - an all-Korean extravaganza between Samsung Galaxy and SK Telecom T1 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, California, for the grand finale of the 2016 World Championships. Will Samsung Galaxy overcome the odds for their first world championship title, or are we in for yet another set of gorgeous SKT skins? Let’s dive into the numbers for a sneak peek into what they tell us about the future.

That’s right - statistics make you essentially psychic.
 

Historical Match-Up

Let’s start with some big stuff. Since LCK Spring 2015, the teams have played each other 18 times, and the record is currently 16-2 in SKT’s favour. SKT have won all the games against SSG where they had a gold lead at 15 minutes, secured first blood, first dragon, or first turret. Conversely, SSG only won 29% of the games where they had a gold lead at 15 minutes, 25% of the games they got first blood, 29% of the games they got first turret, and 33% of the games they secured first dragon.

What this tells us is even if SSG secures important early game objectives, they will still probably lose against SKT. Scary stuff.
 

Gold Difference at 20 Minutes

Gold difference

The blue columns here represent wins, the red ones are losses, and the white line is the gold difference at 20 minutes. This shows us a few things - the most obvious being SSG are coming off a tearing win streak, of course. Check out how SSG’s worm doesn’t stray too far from the base line in their last five games - this shows that the team hasn’t recently been down with huge gold leads at 20 minutes. This is a plus for SSG when you consider their average game time, which is 33 minutes and 15 seconds, the second fastest average in the World Championship so far. For comparison, SKT’s average game time is the 12th fastest. This is surprising for SSG. It means they hold that small lead they have at 20 minutes and snowball it to victory in approximately 13 minutes.

A small, shining statistical star for Samsung.
 

Team Gold Distribution Compared To Average Roles

SKT Gold Distribution
SSG gold distribution

These are spider graphs, showing how the gold distribution differs for each team compared to the World Championship average in terms of percentage - meaning even small differences are fairly significant here. As you can see, SKT sticks pretty close to the norm, with their junglers giving up a little of their gold share to Faker and Wolf.

SSG is where it gets interesting. Ruler gets far below the average share of resources for ADCs, yet still outputs a similar damage-per-minute average as SKT’s Bang. Ironically, Ruler is more bang for your buck. HA!
So where does all that gold that Ruler is missing out on go? Well mainly to his support! Although that might seem a bit like wasted gold, let’s not forget that this year’s Worlds has seen support superstars like Likkrit and GorillA taking the spotlight. And CoreJJ is definitely putting the gold to good use, ranking third out of all players for wards placed per minute as well as topping the leaderboard for highest damage-per-minute amongst supports.
 

DING DING! BONUS ROUND!

  • Jungle: Blank has had a much better early game in the World Championships than Benji, averaging three times as many kills and double the assists while keeping up in farm. Ambition has been one of the worst junglers at placing wards in the early game, but his team as a whole does not fall behind on wards placed at 15 minutes, so others are picking up the slack.

  • Top: Both Duke and CuVee have been very inconsistent in the laning phase this tournament - particularly Duke, whose CSD fluctuates very dramatically from game to game. Duke also averages the least amount of kills and assists of any top-laner in the tournament. CuVee has the most solo kills out of any player, with 11. Duke has 3.

  • Mid: Faker is a god, yes, but his and Crown’s stats are very close - freakishly close. Faker is only slightly ahead in the laning phase. His average damage per minute is 615, Crown’s is 618.

  • Bot: SSG’s Ruler falls behind SKT’s Bang dramatically in CSD at 15 minutes and gold difference at 15 minutes. However, Ruler is only just below Bang in average damage per minute.

What Does It All Mean?

Making it to the finals of the Worlds is no easy task, and both teams need to be praised for making it this far. However, at this high of a level, with teams of this calibre, small advantages on SKT’s part stack up. Their semifinal against ROX Tigers was one for the ages, and showcased their masterful patience and adaptability. Samsung Galaxy are an incredible team and will hopefully put up a good fight  - watch the midlane in particular as Faker tests just how much Crown has learned since LCK.

If SKT win, tell your friends the numbers told you so.
 
If SSG win, tell your friends numbers are ridiculous, that it’s all about who shows up on the night, and that dreams really can come true.